NBA Conference Finals: Lakers in trouble, Cavs will triumph
The Lakers are in trouble. Seriously.
If the goal is an NBA Championship, there’s no other way to look at things, considering what transpired in the Lakers 105-103 win in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals at the Staples Center Tuesday night.
Nevermind that they won. That Kobe Bryant dropped 40 on the Nuggets. That he scored 18 points in the fourth quarter, hitting all nine of his free throws, or that there finally was a Derek Fisher’ sighting. Pay attention, instead, to how Denver’s frontline dominated LA’s frontline. Particularly how drained Kobe appeared after fighting with Carmelo Anthony (39 points) all night long, and it’s clear this series will suck the life out of the Lakers.
It doesn’t take much to go out on a limb and say the Lakers will win this series, probably in 7 games. Denver’s lack of experience speaks to that. Whether it’s an offensive foul by Carmelo, an ill-advised reach-in foul by Kenyon Martin, foolish shots or poise issues when the game’s on the line, the Nuggets showed everyone what they’re all about.
Denver is tough. Ultra-talented. They have size. They can shoot. They’re well coached and they’re much better since Chauncey Billups arrived. But everything they do speaks to their inexperience in such times, feeding the belief that they’re just a step away from being champions. They’re just not there yet.
But it doesn’t mean they won’t take the Lakers to 7 games, or that Kobe won’t get beat up in the process. And while this is happening, where does that leave the Lakers?
Does anyone really believe Pau Gasol will carry this team? Or Lamar Odom? Or Fisher or Trevor Ariza? And don’t get me started on Mr. 6 points and 5 fouls, himself, Andrew Bynum.
With Bynum playing lights out, the Lakers are unbeatable. What happened to him over the last few months is anyone’s guess, but he’s not the same player since Kobe banged into his knee in Memphis nearly four months ago. Quite honestly, he’s looked SORRY!
Bynum is suspect, at best. About the best thing you can say about him right now is that he’s not K.W.A.M.E. Brown. And since he’s struggling, the Lakers, essentially, are nothing more than they were last year.
They’re the best offensive team in basketball. They can score from inside-and-out, and have the best closer in the game. But Kobe’s aging. The Lakers, meanwhile, appear just as soft as they were last year, at times. So much so that K.W.A.M.E. actually looks like he would’ve been an asset if he were still around.
Meanwhile, Denver, if nothing else, is physical. Unapologetic in leaning on intimidation when all else fails. The Nuggets spent the first half running a virtual layup line, and regardless of what the Lakers ultimately did to combat that, the question is: how much will seven games like this take out of them?
You’ve got to assume it’ll be a lot. Enough that in fact, it may drain the Lakers once LeBron and the Cavs come strolling in town.
I’m not saying definitively this is the way it will go down, but it’s worth thinking about.
Doubt it? Check out Kobe walking off the court after Game 1. Ask how long those ice packs stayed on his knees.
Then think about LeBron…..that locomotive coming after the Lakers’ soft frontine….and tell me if you think everything’s okay.
Be foolish if you want to.
EASTERN CONFERENCE FINALS.
This should be a very interesting series, but I still see Cleveland winning. It won’t be easy, though.
Remember, Orlando has beaten Cleveland eight out of the last 11 times. It’s easy to see why considering the Magic have Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis hitting perimeter shots. The thing is, they don’t have Jameer Nelson at point guard for these playoffs, since he’s out for the season with that shoulder injury. They have Rafer Alston, instead, who can’t shoot nearly as well as Nelson and doesn’t do as good a job setting up Turkoglu and Lewis. That, alone, allows more of the focus to be on Dwight Howard who, by the way, hasn’t gotten the ball nearly as much as he should.
So much for Orlando’s advantage.
The Boston Celtics provided some insight into what will give the Magic headaches. Just like Kendrick Perkins beat up on Orlando’s frontline, expect the same from Zydrunas Ilgauskus, Ben Wallace, Anderson Varajao and Joe Smith. If Cleveland has nothing else, it has size. In Mo Williams, Daniel Gibson and Delonte West, the Cavs have perimeter shooters. In LeBron, they have everything else. And I do mean everything, especially the finisher Orlando is lacking.
It’ll be a nip-and-tuck battle. Howard will look like a beast one game, Mini-Me the next. The same could be said about Alston, Turkoglu and Lewis, depending on where they’re playing. Ultimately, it’ll be a 7-game series.
But in the end, LeBron will be 48 minutes away from his second appearance in the NBA Finals, just 5 wins away from his first World Championship. If he’s going to be denied, I just can’t see this Orlando Magic team – even with Dwight Howard – standing in his way.
I just can’t see it.
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This is what happens when you’re a great team..All points taken but the Lakers will prevail
I honestly think this denver team cannot win these lakers in seven games and they will not make it to seven games i just cant see that happening sorry but as we saw last night they have no one that can guard kobe so he just wont get tired and i honestly think they could let carmelo score all he wants cuz to me he was the only person really keeping them in the game kenyon martin had about two really bad fouls chancey was really no were to be found and pau was just bashing the boards at the end and for Lebron i think he still is not ready to take on the lakers we have already seen what the lakers did against them with bynum at the staples center and we have seen what they did to them without him they have no one to guard lamar and lebron cannot play kobe and well the fronline will just demolish the cavs frontline Kobe is not going to allow this to happen we all no he can close the game at the end either making big shots or a great defensive play and even yea even a great pass he now trust his teammates sorry to disagree with you cuz i really like you as a analyst but i hate how everyone has crowned lebron as the best player as we loast remember it was kobe bryant who made i think it was twelve points in the olympics to give them the win not lebron so that without a doubt gives kobe the title of the best closer and the best player in the nba and the world
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From SAS: Why are you apologizing, Abraham? You’re entitled to disagree. You have your feelings; I have mine. We’ll see who’s right and who’s wrong when the final bell sounds. This isn’t National Security, Abraham. It’s basketball.
Exactly! This is what I’ve been saying all along. I love the Lakers. But it will take nothing short of a miracle for them to walk away with that trophy this year. I don’t need to say more. It’s like you looked into my head and wrote what I thought and worded it more eloquently than I could have.
Yes Sir, u are right on it again.I could not help but have a bit of a flash back to mj’s flu game back in 97. Kobe looked worn out just like mj and he wasn’t even sic!! His team has been AWOL and he is aging; a point I have been tryin 2 make to friends for a while now.This man has been at it since 17! Question is did that lack of rest coming out of beijing hurt he and Gasol? If you think about it deep run in playoffs last yr,olympics,and now another deep run it is amazing they haven’t fallin apart….YET
Stephen A….love your columns but cmon. I think that this series and the Rockets series are pushing the Lakers to the limits and showing them that they can win games. Last year they coasted without Bynum, and though he isn’t putting up numbers he is still a force in the paint. He is young, and hey it happens, but good teams find a way to win games like this, and the Lakers win. Some games Kobe is going to go off, and some games he won’t. This just sucked the life out of Denver. That was the best game that they played and still didn’t win. Good night Denver!
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From SAS: Hey Jason, I could be wrong but I’m just going by what I see and I don’t like what I’m seeing from the Lakers.
well be prepared beacuse lebron doesn’t show up on the biggest stage I have seen him play some of the worst games I ever saw from the so called best in the league. He a bottom feeder to me he will kill the bobcats the knicks but look at the two lakers games he played or at houston you will see when they get to the finals buy the way he had a terrible series against boston last year one good game I see other stars cry or be upset when they lose you know what your boy James does when he lose fix his wrist bands or bite his nails he doesnt have what jordain and Kobe has that will that want that killer in him you will see skip is the only person that keeps it real about lebron
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From SAS: Still feel that way about LeBron?
I agree…the Cavs will take it. Not just because of LeBron but because they play “as a team”. (both offensively and defensively) I don’t think that the Lakers carry the same drive…but again…that’s just my opinion. In the matter of the Magic…I think that’ll only go 6 games. Dwight doesn’t play well under pressure.
My sentiments exactly. Do you mind if I forward to my Laker fanatics friends?
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You are absolutely right and true as usual. I did notice Kobe walking off the court last night. He looked like he had been in a 15-round heavyweight bout and needs 6 months to recover for the next fight. They will need those other guys and the musical chairs they did against Houston won’t work. You speak of their inexperience and you’re absolutely right, but who is to say they couldn’t beat L.A. up enough to take the series? As you said tho, if they did that, the Cavs will come in fresh and young and try to pounce on them as well. Nice job Stephen A.
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From SAS: Thanks, Kareem.
I know I watched a different game last night. I saw a struggling team find a way to win. I saw a team that had no business winning because they couldn’t match the other teams sense of urgency and physicality. Champions find a way to win…..no matter what. The Nuggets gave the Lakers their best shot. There is absolutely no way that they (Denver) can continue to play at this level without hitting the wall. I don’t think the Lakers are in trouble at all. I think they just are getting caught at looking down the road. They have their eyes set on the Finals and they aren’t “paying attention” to the teams they are playing to get there. Kobe is 30 which means he has 3 to 4 more years before his scoring average drops below 25 ppg. Don’t count them out yet. Lakers are a sleeping giant. They will turn it on and be as dominant as ever. Just you wait. As for Lebron…..I can’t wait to see what he is going to turn out to be. He is just at the base of the mountain of greatness. If Michael Jordan is the Gold Standard. Lebron is the Economic Bailout. He is doing more for the game right now than anybody has since Jordan. Ask the next 8 yr old you see and ask them who do they pretned to be when they play in the drive way? It’s going to be Lebron. Can you believe it? All this coming from a MAVS fan. My life sucks.
-Micah
P.S. What is with the Nuggets getting away with so many fouls?
If I wasn’t drowning in finals, I would have blogged about the same thing. Couldn’t have said it better myself.
I took a break from studying to watch the game with a friend who is probably the only Laker fan I can watch basketball with because we can handle each other’s banter. She loves the Lakers like a true LA native would while I loathe them the way every Warrior fan does. However, the one concensus that we did have was that Bynum was officially USELESS and has been useless throughout the whole post season. He wasn’t even sweating while Kobe and Billups were disgustingly glistening! Wherever his head is, it’s not in the game.
As you said, the Lakers are in trouble. Anyone who doesn’t believe that is delusional. All anyone has to do is look back to the Rockets series and see that they lost to them not once but on TWO occasions when the Rockets didn’t have a legitimate big man. That’s pretty sorry. I don’t see the Cavs NOT steamrolling their way through the Lakers.
PS: I’ve been waiting for a new blog post for awhile! Glad to see it
The Nuggets frontcourt didn’t dominate. Kenyon Martin can only dunk. His offensive game is horrible. Melo had a great game but they got murdered on the glass. Gasol was dominating the offensive boards. Take that away and the Nuggets bad free throw shooting and the Lakers get blown out.
http://www.whatrickythinks.com
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From SAS: True! But what happened? Melo’s not going anywhere. Neither is Martin or Nene. But what will Bynum do. That’s the huge question right now.
I think you’ve nailed everything into spot stephen. Despite me being born lakers fan, I have to be honest that this western conference series will be long. Kobe is definitely under carmelo’s weight class and has struggled to stop him getting the ball or defensive offensive post rebound. Phil has got to find some way or someone to guard carmelo. Disapppointed was gasol, fisher and odom’s performance last night. Not having few of the lakers starter scoring mid high 10s digit really angers me. They were outbox and outpowered inside the paint. Andrew bynum has also been a big disappointment with avg not even 10 pts in the post season series. The lakers benches really saved the starters despite kobe’s great performance as always. However I’m still flustered with sasha’s horrible shooting. He should not be taking shoots anyymore.
Always keepin it real, thats why I stay reppin Stephen A Smith. Keep up the great work.
The Lakers sure could use a player the caliber of James Posey, a Raja Bell, and a Rodman Type. The dead weight of Walton, Sasha, Sun Yue, Bynum(Benoit Benjamin) may sink this ship.
Glad you’re still taking the time to write about sports, but congrats on moving on to other things.
As a laker fan I went into this game worried after watching both the Houston and Denver/Mavs series, but came out actually more optimistic. The Lakers showed the depth that makes me think they actually can get it done. Sure this will probably go 7 (just don’t see the bench showing up much in denver) but Orlando/Cleveland will go deep as well. Lebron can go off every night but the cleveland bigs don’t strike me as nearly as tough or agile as the denver front line and I think they’ll end up overwhelmed by the height of the Lakers (even mr. 6 points 5 fouls). And Kobe can will himself to do it again and again, just don’t ask about next year. P.S. I hope the baby is doing well, fatherhood rocks.
Stephen A what up! Being a devoted Laker fan here in So.Cal, I must say you are correct that our BIGS need to step up big time! I do not understand why PAU continues to come out soft on the offensive end and not demand the ball or fight for position like a KG or even better Mr.Diesel himself. You know Mamba is at the point now where he wants to see that from PAU! It’s clear Mamba continues to get frustrated by PAU’S “ULTRA SOFT AS CHARMIN” mentality and physical ability. I will leave on this note, Mamba know’s it’s going to be a challenge to win it all with his bigs playing soft! If he has to play with one arm, one leg, and blind in both eyes, HE WILL DO SO!! He is determined to do whatever it takes, TO BRING THE MR.O’BRIEN TROPHY HOME WHERE IT BELONGS!
I didn’t think the Lakers would win the series last night until I saw how the Nuggets played like a bunch of high-schoolers. If they keep playing like that, Lakers have this no problem.
I’m going to look at the Cavs tonight and if they play as I think they will, I will declare them the winner of the NBA Finals.
Hey, I’ve been missing you like crazy on ESPN and realized that the news took place while I’ve been traveling— 1st and 10 won’t be the same without you. Happy that I can find you here and read your stuff. You were easily my favorite guy to watch on ESPN.
Hope to see you on-air somewhere else ASAP, but for now I’ll read your stuff here.
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From SAS: Thanks my man. Deeply appreciate ya.
you’re so right i hope it will be the lakers and the cavs in the finals, but from what i saw last night the way kobe was getting handled up knocked around by melo under the basket last night kobe may not need to practice and save himself for the games the rest of the way because he is going to need it since the rest of his team dont want to show up. what i dont understand is why odom with all the skills he has he should be dominating it seems like he will never reach his full potential. great article that you have written also
As a Lakers’ fan, I remember vividly all the experts before playing Detroit 2004, the Lakers parade and then our team losing in 5. I’ve learned from following the league that a team must face and overcome obstacles and adversity before winning the ring; you can grow stronger through each series as you pursue the ring (think Boston last year, remember the experts after round 1). Being at the game, the mettle the Lakers showed is the kind of grind it out, win when you’re struggling, grit needed to earn the ring. But keeping picking other teams, because they also appear to perform better when everyone stops believing . . . (An aside, really miss you on the radio and/or TV. Hope to see or hear you in a venue that you also like!)
Stephen A,
With all due respect to Avery Johnson and John Barry getting dunked on by a video game Kobe, the NBA playoffs just aren’t the same without watching you on ESPN and hearing you on the radio providing your insight and analysis. Your unique personality and no-nonsense tell it like you see it style will be greatly missed. Nobody breaks down the NBA and has the insider locker room scoop like you. I hope to see you on TV or the radio again real soon.
Best of luck!
-VS
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From SAS: Thank you so much. Appreciate the supportive words.
Oh Stephen A., the LAL and the Nuggets are going to go at least 6 rounds, if not 7. The way I see it, the NBA finals are far-reaching now for the LAL. They were just the come back kids last night and thats all.
Nita
Good afternoon Mr. Smith,
Judging from game one Im not ready to hand this series to the Lakers, not just yet. I have to see more. Ill post my predictions after the next game, or maybe after they play on the road. I agree with you as far as Cleveland/Orlando going seven games. This will also be a very interesting series. This is the good stuff, basketball at its best.
I must say that I am missing your presence on ESPN more and more. Its so weird watching post game analysis and not seeing you. After watching a great game seeing you keep it raw and real was the icing on the cake.
Well Mr. Smith thats all for now. Enjoy the rest of your day.
Christine
I really miss your show Quite Frankly. What was ESPN thinking about when they took it off the air! But the times I have seen you on 1st and Ten I love when ever you shut up Skip Bayless because he swears he knows it all.
I guess I will have to come to your website and read up daily on your thoughts on all current sports topics.
Keep up the excelent work because “YOU ARE THE REAL DEAL”
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From SAS: I’ll have more outlets in the very near future, Kevin. Stay tuned.
STEPHEN A ITS YA BOY DIDDY FROM CT MISS U ON ESPN STILL ENJOY READING YA KNOWLEDGE ABOUT SPORTS I DREAM OF BEING ON TV TALKIN SPORTS YOUR MY IDOL!!!!!!!!!!!!KEEP UP DA GOOD WORK!!!!!!!!
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From SAS: Thanks, my man. Much appreciated.
Cleveland just had their wakeup call! Expect them to step it up now.
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What’s up Stephen A.,
I disagree with you on the Magic issue. The Magic have a deeper bench, and better shooters; this makes things easier for Dwight who kills the offensive glass. Not to mention the pick and roll play. I think the Cavs are in trouble. The Denver Nuggets are also at a huge advantage with their size and physical play. Kobe is going to get his, but Odom, Gasol and Bynum have to prove to deal with Denvers bigs. They are soft! I see the Nuggets coming out on top.
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From SAS: You could be right, Ish. We’ll see.
When will LeBron ever learn how to shoot free throws consistently? Those misses lost the game for the Cavs last night. If he wants to be the next MJ, he needs to work more on that aspect of his game. It’s becoming his Achilles heel. That, along with about 6 more rings, is what’s standing in his way if he wants to be the greatest player ever. You hardly ever saw Jordan choke a game away from the charity stripe. He worked on it so much he could make them with his eyes closed, literally.
By the way I think I might tune in to Monday Night Raw for the first time in years. What Vince McMahon did was great. He is an astute promoter/businessman. I hope he’ll be wearing a Kobe jersey as he watches LA take down Denver. Props to him. I expect no less drama any time Kobe and company come to Denver!
Mr. NBA..luv your work, we need more of it. How-eva, like I stated after they drilled NO, this Denver team is on a mission. It’s obvious Melo has finally taken that next step and he will have his way in this series, as will Kobe. Who’s the next most dependable player in the series, Chauncey. If the Lakers have to use Kobe to play both Billups and Melo the entire game, their in trouble. Before the series I figured it would come to this and I picked the Nugs in 6. After game 1, I stood by my prediction, and after game 2, I stand by it even more. The LA bigs once again want none of the physicality down low. I think Melo can play Kobe to a standstill, and the “other” players will decide this series. The Nugs play at home + the Lakers road play = Nugs in 6.
As for the Cavs, I think they are in deep trouble. I saw the Magic as the one team in the East that would give them trouble. Lewis and Turkoglu are matchup nightmares, and the Magic bench is much more dependable. LBJ wont be able to go hard 48 minutes every night, and where in the world has Mo been? If the Magic continue to shoot the rock good, and get good production outta Pietrus & Lee off the pine, it’s a wrap for King James & his knights. I think both teams outside of LBJ & Howard are full of role players (I dont care HOW much Rashard Lewis makes) and the Magic have the best quality of them. Magic are better or even at every position other than whatever position LBJ is playing at the time. Maybe next year for Kobe & LBJ, but this year it’s…MeloMan vs SuperMan?
CWK3
Hey Mr. Smith,
Wow that game winning shot be Lebron James was nothing short of amazing. That whole game was insane. That shot by Turk had the Cavs sweating. lol. I was on the edge of my seat the whole time. I do believe that Cleveland will prevail and win this series however it will not be easy. Orlando will fight to the end. It shall be interesting. Finally Cleveland has run into some competition.
Christine
Not only the Lakers but the NBA on a whole. The NBA so needed a Lebron/Kobe matchup after years of low ratings but it doesn’t look like it’s going to be. It’s not fair to the Magic and Denver but I think everybody wanted to see the Kobe/Lebron thing like Magic/Bird. But hats off to whoever wins and I’ll still watch.
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From SAS: Uh, sorry! I’m not ready to hear the Fat Lady sing yet.
@Ish Khepri:
Lakers are THE NBA CHampions. Enough said.
Kobe Bryant > LBJ ANY day.
Stephen A. I know I am late but I am really surprised that you took the Lebron James Kool-aid and picked the Cavs to beat the Magic. I picked the Magic to win in 4 or 5 games. They could quite have done so but ended up winning in 6. Oh well, I am just surprised that you picked Cleveland to win. Usually you are on point with your predictions and at times go against the grain, but this time you joined the “ESPN” analysts groupthink. I forgive you man, you’re still my favorite. Take Care!
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Cheers! Sandra. R.